An efficient and effective method for reliability assessment of project duration

Abstract

ABSTRACT The reliability assessment of the project duration is essential for successful project management; this has prompted the development of various methods to assess whether a project will be completed within the target duration. In this study, an efficient and effective method for assessing the reliability of project duration based on the method of moments is proposed, which utilizes bivariate-dimension reduction technology and the third-moment reliability index. The proposed method can avoid the extensive calculations of various factors in the commonly used methods: the correlation coefficients between each pair of paths and the joint failure probability of each pair of representative paths. From two numerical examples, it can be concluded that the proposed method can obtain almost the same results as Monte Carlo simulations with less calculation.