An Effective and Efficient Method to Estimate Average Paddy Yield in Sri Lanka Overcoming the Limitations of the Current Method

Abstract

The Department of Census and Statistics of Sri Lanka carries out an island-wide scheme of estimating paddy's average yield, called the Crop Cutting Survey. It was debated and argued about the accuracy of the data generated through a cumbersome approach which consumes a lot of labour and resources. The objective of this study was to develop an efficient method that would help overcome the limitations of the current method. This study was accomplished through a questionnaire survey and an experimental survey. The GIS technology has been applied to measure the cultivated area and yield measurements by weighting the harvested yield. The weight measurements were subjected to different scaling factors derived through the study. The sample survey of the new methodology was carried out in the Ampara district for 2 paddy varieties namely BG357 and AT362 for the 2017/2018 Maha season. A stratified Random sampling method was used for the selection of paddy parcels. Average paddy yield, scaling factors, and cost of production of these two paddy varieties were calculated separately. The district's estimated paddy yield through the proposed method is 4568.17 kg/ ha, which is not significantly different from the published average (4562 kg ha-1) in paddy statistics of 2017/2018. This is obvious that the proposed method was more effective and efficient than the current method, which assists the government in planning and making policy decisions at the correct time.