Abstract

The wind power time series is easily affected by external environmental factors, showing a high degree of volatility and uncertainty. In order to ensure the safe and stable operation of the power system, it is necessary to increase the auxiliary reserve capacity, and the resulting economic problems need to be solved urgently. This article evaluates the wind power forecast error economically, analyzes the increase in the reserve capacity of the power system caused by the uncertainty of wind power, and establishes an economic optimization with a wind curtailment penalty factor on the basis of the dynamic determination method of the reserve capacity scheduling model. The simulation results of an example show that under the condition of ensuring the safe operation of the system, the smaller the wind power prediction error, the less spare capacity required and the better the economy. In the case of a certain error, using the dynamic method to determine the spare capacity is an economical and reliable method.

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