An Economic and Measurement Study of the Impact of Government Support and some other variables on Wheat Crop Production in Iraq for the Period (1992-2019)

Abstract

The research came with the aim of analyzing the government support provided by the state to farmers for the purpose of increasing the production of the wheat crop and trying to reach the stage of self-sufficiency, and the time period (1992-2019) was adopted as the basis for this analysis. And as it turned out after applying the corrected least squares model (FMOLS), the results of the model showed that the significant variable (Y) represents the production of the wheat crop and the variable (X1) the support provided to the wheat crop, and the relationship was direct between the amount of support provided to wheat and the amount of production, and its parameter was (0.000708). As for the parameter of the independent variable, the local price of wheat (X2), there was a significant and direct relationship between the local price of the crop and the quantity of production, and its parameter was (0.003796), while the parameter of the independent variable was the global price of wheat (X3), the relationship was significant and negative with the quantity of production, and its parameter was (-8.174128). The parameter of the independent variable (X4) represented the cultivated area and its positive and significant relationship with the amount of production, and its parameter was (0.418500), while the parameter of the independent variable represented the size of loans for wheat crop (X5), its relationship was significant and negative between the size of loans and the amount of production, and its parameter was (0.014039). The analysis proved that the policies that the state operates in Iraq towards the wheat crop had a positive impact on the product and the produced quantities of the wheat crop, and at the same time it achieved a positive impact on the degree of consumer welfare in providing food. He concluded that the government support policy in Iraq played a successful role in stimulating the agricultural production process and increasing the production of the wheat crop, and had a positive role in increasing the quantity supplied of wheat, but it did not reach the level of satisfying the actual demand. The research recommends preventing the arrival of quantities of the wheat crop to Iraq informally or legally and of inefficient quality, which affects the prices of the local product and creates unbalanced competition.