An Economic Analysis of Voters' Turnout in Petition Referendums

Abstract

In this paper we analyse four possible variables influencing voters' turnout in petition referendums in Italy: the nature of the issue (efficiency or distributive), the number of referendums voted together, the month in which the referendum is held, and parties' recommendations. The decision to vote or to abstain is important because the Italian Constitution establishes a 50% + 1 voter threshold turnout for the referendum to have legal effects. We find that distributive referendums have higher turnout than efficiency referendums, the higher the number of voters supporting parties that recommends abstention, the lower the turnout, referendums held in June have lower turnout. Finally, up to five referendums there is no effect of the number of referendums voted together on turnout. Starting from these results, we provide some suggestions for reforms.