AN ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF THE MOST IMPORTANT FACTORS AFFECTING AGRICULTURAL GROWTH IN IRAQ USING ARDL MODEL

Alattabi & Albadri

doi:10.36103/ijas.v50i6.845

Abstract

This research was aimed to study some factors influencing agricultural growth in Iraq. Using time series data for the period 1990 – 2017, of agricultural growth (a dependent variable) and agricultural exports, agricultural imports, agricultural fixed capital and the agricultural labor force (as independent variables). For these purposes, were statistical and econometrics methods employed to determine the most important aspects of this problem in agricultural sector. Co-integration analysis was used which developed by Johansen, also Augmented Dicky – Fuller of unit root test to determine non stationary data for choosing the best analysis method. In light of results, Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag model (ARDL) was used in assessment and analysis. The results showed presence of co-integration in both agricultural imports and agricultural labor force with elasticity coefficients (-0.3 and-0.6), respectively and significant at 1% and 5% levels respectively, and lack of co-integration of both the agr.exports and agricultural fixed capital with elasticity coefficients (0.2 and 0.03) respectively which they are not significant.

Highlights

Economic growth is concerned with the increasing susceptibility of an economy to the provision of goods and services over a certain period of time, whatever the source of such savings locally, externally or both (20)
It is natural that the rates of increase in domestic production cannot be maintained after the maximum utilization rate is attained and economic growth can be inferred by indicators (12): Determine the average real per capita income growth rates and determining real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rates or real net production
It is necessary to take a quick and concise look at some of the previous studies that focused on the role of exports in economic growth, and point out to the results, in 2004 Awokuse studied the viability of the export hypothesis leads to growth in Canada, using the empirical evidence linking exports to economic growth, including Granger causality and Vector Error Correction Models (VECM) and applied Augmented Vector Auto Regressive (AVAR) methodology

Summary

Introduction

Economic growth is concerned with the increasing susceptibility of an economy to the provision of goods and services over a certain period of time, whatever the source of such savings locally, externally or both (20). The researcher used the natural logarithm of quarterly data for the period (1961 – 2004), the study included the following variables in the model (gross domestic product, exports, trade rate, industrial employment, total capital formation, manufacturing index), and the study found a causal relationship in the short and long term between the variables in Canada confirms the validity of the Exports lead growth hypothesis (10). In 2011 studied export - economic growth relationship represented by gross domestic product (GDP) In Algeria for the period 1970 – 2005, use co-integration method and ECM and using causality tests. In 2014 Abu Shihab published a paper causal relationship between exports and economic growth in Jordan using the Granger cause methodology to determine the relationship trend for the period 2000 – 2012, the researcher used economic growth (GDP) and exports at current prices. MATERIALS AND METHODES This study was relied on secondary data, which are the time series data covering the period from 1990 to 2017 obtained from local and global agencies such as: - Ministry of Agriculture/ Iraq. - Ministry of Planning/ Central Organization for Statistics and information Technology/ Iraq

Objectives

Methods

Results