Abstract

The paper documents the specification and estimation of an econometric model of the Brazilian stock market (Bovespa) using a GARCH(1,1) model. We used quarterly data for an estimation period spanning from January 1995 to December 2003. The empirical results show that GDP growth, exchange-rate devaluations and international stock markets affect positively the Brazilian stock market, whereas the domestic real interest rate and country risk have a negative impact on the country's stock market performance.

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