An Econometric Model for Assessing the Asymmetry of Urban Development as a Factor of Regional Economic Growth: The Case of Kazakhstan

Abstract

Given the trend of increasing imbalance in the economic development of administrative-territorial units and ensuring their innovative development, the issue of upgrading the effectiveness of the anti-crisis regional policy is becoming urgent. The research aim is to develop an econometric model for assessing the impact of asymmetries in the development of urban economies on the regional socio-economic development based on the case of Kazakhstan. The article establishes a sample of indicators of socio-economic development of cities and regions in Kazakhstan in 2014-2018. The governance indicators of the influence of the asymmetry in urban development on the regional socio-economic development in Kazakhstan have been determined based on the Granger causality test, the creation of a cognitive map and the identification of hierarchy levels. The asymmetry in regional development has been estimated applying the coefficient of variation of the relevant indicators of socio-economic development of cities and regions, taking into account the lagged variables. The developed model allows determining the convergence model of regional development, the nature of the influence of asymmetries in the development of cities on the regional economic development in the context of economic growth and recession, as well as identifying the key factors in the asymmetry of regional development. The results are based on reliable data; they are of practical importance and can serve as the basis for the elaboration of effective preventive measures for anti-crisis regional development policy, not only to neutralize asymmetries, but also to achieve economic growth under the conditions of unbalanced regional development.