AN ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS FORTHE IMPACT OF CLIMATIC CONDITIONS ON THE PRODUCTIVITY OF MANGO CROPS IN EGYPT BY USING PANEL DATA MODELS

Abstract

Horizontal agricultural expansion is one of the most important pillars of the national economy in Egypt, so the country makes strenuous efforts to make optimal use of agricultural resources, and despite these efforts, the climate prevents it.Recently, global warming has increased and climate change is expected to worsen the frequency, intensity, and impacts of some types of extreme weather events that affected mango productivity during the last years, which led to a decrease in productivity by about 37%, with a value of financial losses amounting to 4.8 billion pounds in 2021.Therefore, the research aims to estimate the impact of extreme weather on mango productivity during the last three years (2021-2019) at four studied governorates representing 75% of the total area of mango in Egypt. The Fixed Effect Cross of Panel Data Model was adopted as the appropriate model, to illustrate the impact of the phenomena on the productivity of mangoes. The results show that there is a statistical significance and a negative effect for both the minimum and maximum temperatures, as productivity decreases by about 1.05%, and 1.79% with an increase in each of the minimum and maximum temperatures by 1%, respectively. The negative impact has been shown on the governorates of Buhaira and Ismailia. Also, the individual effect was studied for each month,it was found that there was a statistically significant negative effect of the minimum and maximum temperatures for the months of flowering and fruiting.