Abstract
A direct demand intercity gravity model has been developed with the purpose of forecasting air traffic volumes on the entire conventional Norwegian network. The model has been calibrated econometrically using combined cross-sectional and time series data on traffic flows, fares, travel time, income, and population. Fares and travel time are taken into account for air travel as well as for the fastest surface means of mass transportation. Medium- and long-term elasticities are derived and have the expected sign and order of magnitude,with one disturbing exception.
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