Abstract
This study aimed at assessing the association between exposure to severe air pollution in the past and the subsequent transition in lung cancer mortality among persons who lived in an industrial city. Vital statistics from 1983 to 2006 and the data on air pollution measurements from 1960 to 1990 in Amagasaki City, Japan, were used. Pearson correlation coefficients were calculated between the standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) for lung cancer and the air pollution levels in 6 wards of Amagasaki City. The associations between changes in air pollution levels and the annual SMRs were also evaluated in the light of a potential latency period. The levels of air pollution were extremely high in the 1960s, and they decreased since 1970. The SMRs for lung cancer in 1989-1993 among females for 6 wards were significantly associated with the amounts of both sulfur oxides and dust fall in the past for each ward. The positive associations were observed between the annual SMRs among females and the amounts of both pollutants when the lag time of 20-30 years was taken into account. These results suggest that severe air pollution in the 1960s in an industrial city affected the subsequent increase in lung cancer mortality.
Highlights
In Japan, lung cancer mortality has been consistently increasing since the 1950s (Marugame and Sobue, 2004)
The crude mortality rates for lung cancer in Amagasaki City are shown in Fig. 3 with nationwide data
The present study showed that lung cancer mortality increased since 1980 in Amagasaki City, in which the air pollution levels were extremely high from the later 1950s to the 1960s
Summary
In Japan, lung cancer mortality has been consistently increasing since the 1950s (Marugame and Sobue, 2004). Numerous epidemiological studies have consistently reported smoking as a major risk factor for lung cancer (Marugame et al, 2005; Doll et al, 1994; Stevens and Moolgavkar, 1984). A prospective cohort study by the American Cancer Society (Pope et al, 2002) reported that high concentrations of air pollutants were significantly associated with the increase in lung cancer mortality. European epidemiological studies have not shown a clear association between air pollution and lung cancer (Vineis et al, 2006; Filleul et al, 2005; Hoek et al, 2002; Barbone et al, 1995). The available epidemiologic evidence is discordant, and the effect of air pollution on lung cancer is not conclusive (Gallus et al, 2008)
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