An ecological evaluation of the increasing incidence of endometrial cancer and the obesity epidemic

Abstract

The prevalence of obesity has increased significantly in recent decades, particularly among younger women, and is a known risk factor for endometrial cancer. This study aimed to evaluate the trend in the prevalence of obesity and the incidence of type I endometrial cancer over time in various age categories to determine whether an ecological relationship exists. Data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program and the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey were used. The overall trend in the incidence of type 1 endometrial cancer and prevalence of obesity were observed over time from 1988 to 2016 and further categorized by age group (<45, 45-54, and ≥55 years). The prevalence of obesity has increased for all women, but most significantly for women younger than 45 years with a 16.3% increase among women aged 20 to 34 years and a 17.9% increase for women aged 35 to 44 years. The incidence of endometrial cancer has also increased across all age categories, and although it has increased in patients younger than 45 years by more than 14-fold (from <0.1 per 100,000 in 1988 to 1.4 per 100,000 in 2016), a more pronounced increase of 63-fold and 50-fold was observed among women aged 45 to 54 years (0.2 per 100,000 in 1988 to 12.6 per 100,000 in 2016) and women aged 55 years and older (from 0.6 per 100,000 in 1988 to 30 per 100,000 in 2016), respectively. The mean age of women diagnosed as having endometrial cancer also decreased from 64.1 years from 1988 to 1990 to 61.0 years from 2014 to2016. The prevalence of obesity has increased significantly in women of all ages. This increase, particularly among women aged <45 years, occurred simultaneously with an increase in the incidence of endometrial cancer in young women, with an even more pronounced increase among women aged ≥45 years.