An Ecological Analysis of Food Expenditure Patterns During Periods of Economic Recovery and Economic Shock in India

Abstract

ObjectivesTo study the patterns of food expenditure by Indian households during periods of economic recovery (after the Great Recession in 2008–09) and economic shock (from a currency demonetization policy in 2016). I hypothesize that real consumer price index (CPI) adjusted food expenditure (in Rupees) would be lower after the economic shock with higher share of spending on processed foods ― consistent with the nutrition transition hypothesis. MethodsUsing published tables from India’s nationally representative Household Consumer Expenditure Surveys in 2011–12 and 2017–18, I estimate real (Rs.) and percentage (of total expenditure) CPI-adjusted monthly per capita expenditure (MPCE) on food. I report the share of food MPCE for dairy products, sugar, oil, fresh fruits, vegetables (including tubers), and processed foods. Analysis was carried out for 36 states and union territories stratified by urbanicity. ResultsReal and percentage MPCE on food were lower in 2017–18 (Rs. 705.1; 52.3%) relative to 2011–12 (Rs. 794.9; 52.9%) for rural India. For urban India, real MPCE on food (but not percentage) was higher in 2017–18 (Rs. 1207.4; 41.9%) relative to 2011–12 (Rs. 1168.4; 42.6%). The percentage decrease was due to higher non-food MPCE (2011–12: Rs. 1572.8; 2017–18: Rs. 1672.6). At the state-level, real (rural: 28; urban: 9) and percentage (rural: 21; urban: 20) decreases were observed in rural areas. As a share of food MPCE, spending on sugar (rural: 25; urban: 29) and edible oil (rural: 22; urban: 26) decreased in most states from 2011–12. However, share of food MPCE increased on dairy (rural: 26; urban: 23), fresh fruits (rural: 31; urban: 30), vegetables (rural: 26; urban: 19), and processed foods (rural: 20; urban: 26) for majority of states. This is despite a real decrease in spending (in Rs) on processed foods (rural: 26; urban: 9) and vegetables (rural: 21; urban: 8) for most states in rural areas. Real spending (Rs.) increased for dairy (rural: 20; urban: 26) and fresh fruits (rural: 23; urban: 29) for most states. ConclusionsRural areas showed a decrease in real food expenditures from 2011–12 to 2017–18. Food expenditures decreased in share for sugar and oil, but increased in share for fruits, vegetables and processed foods. This was also observed in urban areas where there was an increase in real food expenditures. Funding SourcesNone.