An Ecologic Study of the Association between 1,3-Dichloropropene and Pancreatic Cancer

Abstract

1,3-Dichloropropene (1,3-D) is a soil fumigant that is used to protect fruit, vegetable, field, tree, and vine crops from nematode infestation and soil borne diseases. It is a commonly use pesticide, is applied by either direct injection into the soil or drip irrigation and is highlight volatile. Though currently classified as "Suggestive Evidence of Carcinogenic Potential", the literature in animal-based studies has inconsistent results and there is limited research among a human population with one study only among the California population. The purpose of the current analysis is to conduct a state-level analysis of the association between 1,3-D and pancreatic cancer mortality. Data for this ecological study were derived from death certificate data (for pancreatic mortality) from 1999 to 2020 and United States Geologic Survey National Water-Quality Assessment project for years 1992-2016 (1,3-D use). A negative binomial regression adjusted for selected lifestyle risk factors of pancreatic cancer (i.e., obesity, alcohol use, and smoking prevalence) estimated rate ratios (RRs) and associated 95% confidence intervals (CIs)for the association between 1,3-D quartiles and pancreatic cancer mortality rate. Models lagged in five-year increments to account for the induction period of pancreatic cancer. Overall, there was no association between 1,3-D quartile and pancreatic cancer mortality rate; however, limiting the analyses to states reporting 1,3-D use for at least 20 years, the highest quartile of 1,3-D use was associated with an 11% increase in the pancreatic cancer mortality rate in the five-year lagged model (RR 1.11, 95% CI 1.06-1.16). This association was consistent across the other lag periods. Accounting for lifestyle factors associated with pancreatic cancer risk, there is a significantly increase rate of pancreatic cancer mortality among states that have the highest quartile of 1,3-D use and have been using 1,3-D for a long-term period.