An Eastern Wild Turkey Population Dynamics Model for Virginia and West Virginia

Abstract

Hunting can have potentially significant impacts on wild turkey (Meleagris gallopavo) populations. We developed a 2-sex Leslie-type matrix model that predicts wild turkey population size for spring-summer and fall-winter periods to understand the effects of hunting on the dynamics of wild turkey populations in Virginia and West Virginia. A base model incorporates parameters derived from a large-scale radiotelemetry study (n = 1,543 hens radio-tagged) conducted over areas with different fall hunting seasons in Virginia and West Virginia from 1989 to 1994. These data made it possible to evaluate the effects of season length, season timing, and 1- versus 2-sex kills on population growth and future harvests. A sensitivity analysis confirmed that fall hunting has the strongest negative effect on the population growth rate. For the range of parameters explored, population growth rate appeared to decrease linearly with increases in fall hunting. Also, the proportion of males in the population was more sensitive to fall rather than spring hunting. These results were invariant to a wide variety of different model calibrations.