Abstract
The ability to predict the imminent arrival of coastal storm risks is a valuable tool for civil protection agencies in order to prepare themselves and, if needs be, execute the appropriate hazard-reduction measures. In this study we present a prototype Early Warning System (EWS) for coastal storm risk on the Emilia-Romagna coastline in Northern Italy. This EWS is run by executing a chain of numerical models (SWAN, ROMS and XBeach) daily, with the final output transformed into a format suitable for decision making by end-users. The storm impact indicator selected for this site is the Safe Corridor Width (SCW), which is a measure of how much dry beach width is available for safe passage by beach users. A three-day time-series of the predicted SCW is generated daily by the prototype EWS. If the minimum SCW exceeds a certain threshold, a warning is issued to end-users via an automated email service. All available prediction information is also updated daily on-line. Over the one year that the EWS has been operating (June 2011 until June 2012), 13 "code red† and 16 "code orange† warnings have been issued, with the remaining 305 predictions indicating low hazard in terms of the SCW. The reliability of the predictions from the perspective of the end-user has meant that the EWS is currently being expanded to include the entire Emilia-Romagna coastline.
Highlights
The last decade has seen some severe coastal disasters, including Hurricane Katrina inNew Orleans, the 2004 and 2011 tsunamis in the Indian Ocean and Japan and the 2010 Xinthia storm in France (Ciavola et al, 2011a)
The Storm Impact Indicator selected in this study was the Safe Corridor Width, which is a measure of the dry beach width available and is a concept that is very important in coastal management worldwide
The coastline of Emilia-Romagna in Northern Italy is vulnerable to coastal storm hazards due to the low-lying nature of its hinterland as well as the large amount of infrastructure situated along its coastline
Summary
New Orleans, the 2004 and 2011 tsunamis in the Indian Ocean and Japan and the 2010 Xinthia storm in France (Ciavola et al, 2011a) All of these events have brought to light the importance of an Early Warning System (EWS) in predicting and preparing for the arrival of coastal risks, thereby minimizing loss of life as well as damage to infrastructure. A review of coastal management plans and civil protection schemes across Europe (Ferreira et al, 2009) found that operational approaches involving real-time observations or predictions are currently very limited Where such approaches exist, they are based on meteorological and/or offshore wave forecasts that do not take into account localized near-shore variability that can result in substantially different responses along the coast
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Free) 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a call
