An Early Warning System for Technological Innovation Risk Management Using Artificial Neural Networks

Abstract

With the advent of knowledge-based economy, technological innovation is becoming more and more important and it is widely regarded as a key ingredient in business success. However, under a complex and changeable environment, the innovation risks are an inherent part of innovation process and they need to be managed effectively from the very beginning. Today, innovation risk warning as a new subject is currently receiving a huge amount of interest. The main objective of this paper is to put forward a new warning approach for technological innovation risk management based on artificial neural networks. This paper is organized as follows. Section one is the introduction. The second section puts forward the structure of artificial neural networks. We provide the knowledge representation of early warning indexes for technological innovation risk in the third section. In the fourth section, using survey data on some medium and small technology-based firms in Hangzhou national high-tech industrial development zone, a simulation is given. The testing results demonstrate that the method performs very well. And last, we give the conclusions.