Abstract
The oil system security in a country or region will affect its sustainable development ability. China’s oil security has risen to the national strategic level. It is urgent to construct an early warning indicator system to reflect the oil security level accurately, as well as to diagnose and assess the oil system status effectively and put forward the corresponding proposals for ensuring oil security. An early warning indicator system of China’s oil system covering 23 sub-indicators from three aspects, i.e., resource security, market security and consumption security, was constructed using the SPSS (Statistical Product and Service Solutions) factor analysis method. It shows that China’s oil system safety level has been seriously threatened and is generally declining. However, due to the strong introduction of energy policies and increasing energy utilization technology in recent years, the increasing proportion of new energy, renewable energy and oil substitutes eases the energy security threats. In response to complex oil security issues, the Chinese government needs to strengthen macroeconomic regulation and control at the policy level continuously, increase efforts to explore resource reserves, upgrade energy conservation and emission reduction technologies, develop new alternatives for oil products, and reduce the dependence on international oil imports.
Highlights
As an important pillar of national economy development, energy has been involved in many fields such as industry, building, agriculture, transportation, commerce and the service industry and residential life
It was found that in order to improve oil security, the Chinese government must strengthen its awareness of strategic oil reserves, improve energy utilization efficiency and develop new and renewable energy
Due to the shortage of oil resources in China, it is difficult to ensure the balance of oil supply and demand by domestic oil production
Summary
As an important pillar of national economy development, energy has been involved in many fields such as industry, building, agriculture, transportation, commerce and the service industry and residential life. Chen et al argued that China's energy early warning system should include five parts: resource security, production security, using security, transport security, and consumption safety [20]. The research on energy early warning indicator systems mainly focused on energy supply, energy storage and energy import, while some researches involved national policies, energy consumption and market fluctuations. According to the analysis above, oil security is influenced by many factors such as including supply, resource, production, consumption, economy, etc. The oil security early warning indicator system must be constructed from a systemic perspective It is analyzed from three aspects, i.e., resource, market and consumption. The second section includes the construction of an oil early warning indicator system and model construction based on factor analysis.
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