An early assessment of the impact of COVID-19 on air transport: Just another crisis or the end of aviation as we know it?

Abstract

Along with other sectors of the economy, air traffic is vulnerable to external factors, such as oil crises, natural disasters, armed conflicts, terrorist attacks, economic recessions and disease outbreaks. These outside influences seem to have a more severe and more rapid impact on air traffic numbers as sudden increases in flight cancellations, aircraft groundings, travel bans and border closures are quickly felt in lower load factors and yields for airlines, while airports lose non- aeronautical revenues (Voltes-Dorta and Pagliari, 2012). Before Covid-19, the most important disease outbreak in terms of impact on air traffic was SARS in 2003. According to IATA (IATA, 2020a), in May 2003, at the height of the SARS outbreak, monthly revenue passenger kilometres (RPKs) of Asia-Pacific airlines were 35% lower than their pre-crisis levels. Covid-19 has gone well beyond these levels and is currently taking the aviation industry into uncharted territory. As of 24 March 2020, 98% of global passenger revenues were accounted for by air transport markets with severe restrictions (i.e., quarantine for arriving passengers, partial travel bans, and border closures), many airlines have been brought to a complete stop and, to make matters worse, the provisionally-observed recovery pattern for Covid-19 is turning out to be slower than the short-sharp V-shaped pattern observed in 2003. (Fig. 1 ). Open in a separate window Fig. 1 SARS vs Covid-19 outbreak available seat kilometres (ASKs) evolution in the Chinese domestic market.