Abstract
An automated system for Olea pollensurveying and forecasting is being developedfor the province of Cordoba, Spain, within theframework of the European ASTHMA project.Required input data have been split into threecategories: static data, calibration parametersand dynamic data. A 200 × 200 km potential pollenproduction map, centred on the city of Cordoba,was drawn up using digital high-resolutionsatellite data and reflecting average plantdensity, as derived from the observed spatialseparation of trees in 28 different locations.Based on archives of pollen data from 1982, thestart of the pollen season was determined byapplying both heat accumulation methods andneural network analysis including furthermeteorological parameters. The forecast andsurvey system is based on a set of twoelementary atmospheric physics modules andbiological models: emission and dispersionmodules. The system can run in different modes,allowing forecasting of the floweringstart-date and, from that date, charting theemission and dispersion of pollenconcentrations in the area. Also, wind andtemperature fields are regularly computed andupdated using deterministic numerical models tochart the spatial and temporal concentration ofOlea pollen.
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