An Attempt to measure the Extra Risk arising from a Consumptive Family History when the Life proposed for Assurance is physically Sound and Healthy

Abstract

It has been said that there is nothing so delusive as figures. especially in the form of statistics; and to a very large extent this is true. There is a real science of statistics which very few are acquainted with; and the consequence is that enormous labour is often expended on the collection of “Facts” which are not only useless but misleading. So-called “Facts” are often used as a crushing answer to some statement which may be perfectly true; and sometimes with effect, simply because the materials are not at hand to measure correctly the value of the statistics used. The most common offence is that of attempting to draw general conclusions from partial or imperfect observations. For instance, what is the value of the statistics of a coroner respecting the proportion of children murdered, out of the number which come under his observation, when the millions who do not come under his observation are not taken into consideration? Yet such statistics were gravely used to prove that two millions of people insured their children's lives with a view to murdering them, and that therefore such insurances ought to be suppressed. If any weight were to be attached to such statistics we might have it gravely stated, on the evidence of a coroner, that nearly every one died a sudden or violent death.