Abstract
The paper studies the main economic threats to energy security and the indicators descriptive of them. Available models to estimate the numerical values of these threats are presented. The results of modeled calculations are provided. Keywords: energy security, strategic threats, indicators, risks.
Highlights
Deviation from the reference caseThe modeled calculations demonstrated noticeable regional differences in probability (risks) of the power plant capacity shortage (Table 2)
The threat of possible long-term capacity shortage may be caused by lack of investment and other resources for timely implementation of large-scale projects, issues with the required development in linked industries and infrastructure, and time constraints
In studies conducted at the SEI SB RAS the MISS-EL stochastic model that integrates optimization with the well-established Monte Carlo method is employed [7]
Summary
The modeled calculations demonstrated noticeable regional differences in probability (risks) of the power plant capacity shortage (Table 2). © The A uthors, published by EDP Sciences. Weighted average risk of total new capacity additions for power plants in some regions ranges from 4 to 15%, while in the case of interval uncertainty it is 10 to 20%. In this case, the risk of investing in the construction of individual plants may exceed 50%
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