An Assessment of the Impact of Exchange Rate Deregulation and Structural Adjustment Programme on Cotton Production and Utilization in Nigeria

Abstract

At Nigeria’s independence, agriculture was the mainstay of the economy. It provided employment, food, raw materials for industry and foreign exchange. However, within 20 years of Independence the country became unable to cope with the overall needs of its food and raw materials. Increased foreign exchange earnings from the export of crude oil were implicated as leading to the neglect and subsequent decline in the performance of the Nigerian agricultural sector. The Structural Adjustment Programme SAP was adopted to restructure and diversify the productive base of the economy in such a way as to reduce dependency on the oil sector and imports. One of the key policy strategies designed to achieve the Nigeria's SAP goals was the adoption of a market-determined exchange rate. This paper set out to assess the impact of exchange rate deregulation and SAP on cotton production and utilization in Nigeria. Time series data on aggregate cotton production, Naira’s average cross exchange rates with the US dollar and average capacity utilization rate of textile manufacturers in Nigeria for the period 1973-2007 were collected and analysed using Multiple-regression and the student’s t test technique. Findings includes: exchange rate deregulation per se has no significant effect on cotton production in Nigeria; more cotton was produced in Nigeria during the post-SAP period; the average capacity utilization of domestic textile industry in Nigeria during the pre-SAP period was higher than during the post-SAP period. Based on the findings of the study some noteworthy lessons were highlighted.