An assessment of the economic feasibility of the floating PV technology in Aotearoa–New Zealand

Abstract

Electricity generation from utility-scale solar facilities is projected to grow to between 5 and 16 TWh by 2050 in Aotearoa–New Zealand. The floating photovoltaic (FPV) technology is considered a viable option for the country, because of the good solar resource at existing hydropower schemes. This paper aims to inform the understanding of the economic feasibility of FPV systems through the analysis of specific cases – Maraetai Dam and Lake Tekapo. To do so, the solar resource and FPV outputs are obtained through the modelling of Solargis and using industry standard technical specification. As well as the normal uncertainties associated with (potential) FPV performance evaluations, the influence of water temperature is also considered. The overall FPV output is estimated to be between 1,115 and 1,497 kWh/kWp. Using available Engineering, Procurement and Construction (EPC) costs, the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) metric, for a 10 MW installation, is determined to be between NZ$176 and NZ$237 per MWh, with total electricity generation over 25 years between 263 and 353 GWh. In order to reach the required LCOE value of less than NZ$100/MWh for utility scale generation, the EPC costs will have to be reduced by a factor of 2 to around NZ$1,500/kWp.