An Assessment of the Demographic Transition in China

Abstract

Many Chinese scholars hold the view that demographic transition in China has been completed. Some even argue that the country has already entered a “post-demographic transition period.” Inspired by John R. Week’s reformulated perspective on demographic transition, this study examines China’s demographic transition with regard to five aspects: epidemiological transition, fertility transition, age transition, family transition, and urban transition. The results indicate that while the epidemiological transition and the fertility transition may well have been accomplished, the transitions in age structure, family, and urbanization have not. The study concludes that the demographic transition in China is not yet finished but still under way. Considering the country’s weak infrastructure in general and the overall low standard of living for the vast rural population in particular, China still faces severe challenges. Policy implications are discussed.