An assessment of sea-air CO2 flux in the Arctic Ocean from 1985 to 2018

Abstract

As a contribution to the Regional Carbon Cycle Assessment and Processes phase 2 (RECCAP2) project, we present synthesized estimates of the Arctic Ocean CO2 uptake and their uncertainties from state-of-the-art surface ocean pCO2-observation products, global and regional ocean biogeochemical models and atmospheric inversions. For the period of 1985−2018, the Arctic Ocean represents a net sink of CO2 of 103 ± 19 TgC yr−1 in the pCO2 products and 92 ± 30 TgC yr−1 in the ocean biogeochemical models. While the long-term mean CO2 uptake in the Arctic Ocean is primarily caused by steady-state fluxes of natural carbon, it is enhanced 28% by the atmospheric CO2 increase and 15% by climate change. Moreover, the climate effect in the Arctic Ocean has become more important in recent years. The CO2 uptake peaks in late summer and early autumn, and is low in winter because the sea ice cover inhibits sea-air fluxes. The annual mean of CO2 uptake increased due to the decreasing sea ice concentration both in the pCO2 products and the ocean biogeochemical models. Both, the mean CO2 uptake and the trend, is substantially weaker in the atmospheric inversions. Uncertainty across all estimates is large especially in the estimated surface ocean pCO2 values in the East Siberian Sea and the Laptev Sea, due to scarcity of observations and missing processes in models, such as land-sea fluxes and sediment dynamics.