An assessment of observed and projected temperature changes in Armenia

Abstract

Future changes in annual and seasonal temperature over Armenia based on the Community Climate System Model 4 (CCSM4) output data from newly developed dataset of phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) have been analysed. The results of this study suggest that Armenia will experience significant temperature increase in the twenty-first century. Moreover, the greatest warming is expected in the summertime and can reach 4–6 °C under representative concentration pathways (RCP)8.5 for the middle and end of the century. However, observations show significant variability and seasonal amplitude in temperature regime which is peculiar to mountain regions located in mid-latitudes. It was shown that strong cold wave events can be directly followed by prolonged hot days within one year in Armenia. The CCSM4 model has substantial deficiencies in simulating the regional climate over Armenia. Validation results indicate the largest errors (root-mean-square error (RMSE)) in the representation of winter temperatures. There is also significant uncertainty in projected temperature change patterns in Armenia over the twenty-first century. However, the CCSM4 model becomes more confident in the prediction of temperature increase over Armenia toward the end of the century.