An assessment of estimation models and investment gaps for the deployment of high-speed broadband networks in NUTS3 regions to meet the objectives of the European Gigabit Society

Abstract

This paper analyses the deployment of high-speed broadband networks in the European Union (EU). Its aim is to assess the investment required to meet the targets set by the European Commission (EC) for 2025, within the framework of the European Gigabit Society (EGS). This plan aims to ensure the availability and take-up of very high-capacity fixed and wireless networks, in both urban and rural areas, among households and the main socio-economic drivers. The estimation model presented here uses a methodology supported by data at the local (NUTS3) level to give a bottom-up estimation of the investment gap for each of the EGS objectives, using three different scenarios depending on the mix of wired and wireless technologies offered. The methodology and estimation model used in the paper are examined against other examples and assumptions available in the literature. We also offer a dynamic perspective on the analysis of the evolution of this investment gap over the years 2017–2019, which includes an assessment of the usefulness of these estimation models. The paper concludes by identifying the need for new measures to attract investment from public and private sources, mostly in rural areas, since purely market-driven initiatives fall short by about two-thirds of the required total investment. We also highlight how estimation models, despite their apparent complexity and number of assumptions, have a proven capacity to provide sufficiently accurate figures to guide policy action at the local, regional, national and supra-national levels. The usefulness of these estimation models could be enhanced by the availability of homogeneous and stable information on socio-demographics and on the level of coverage and take-up of broadband networks, at least at NUTS3 level.