An Assessment of China's Foodgrain Supplies in 1980

Abstract

PRIOR TO 1961 Chinese agriculture had already attained, within the framework of traditional agriculture, a very high level of output per unit of land under the constraint of resources supplied from within the farm sector. Thus any further significant increase in the output per unit of land could not be made without major changes in the input structure. The changes required were the establishment of a technical foundation upon which alteration of cropping systems can be made feasible, and the application of a large amount of modern inputs supplied from non-agricultural sectors in conjunction with the adoption of new, improved cropping systems. Such structural changes in inputs (or agriculture transformation) were slowly introduced during the 1960s, but the tempo has risen during the 1970s. In recent years China has also carried out a birth control program. As a result, the younger generation in both rural and urban areas, but especially the latter, is more inclined to planned birth than was the older generation. However, due partly to the large proportion of the population in the reproductive age and partly to the slower response of the rural population to planned birth, the crude birth rate did not drop as much as expected. Apparently the drop in birth rate has not exceeded the drop in death rate significantly during the past two decades. But since the planned birth momentum is making steady headway in the rural areas, the drop in overall birth rate will be greater in the near future. This greater drop in birth rate, together with an expected slowdown in the decline of death rate, should significantly reduce the rate of natural increase in the near future. However, this may not happen before 1980. Thus between now and 1980 the annual population growth rate is not expected to be much lower than the present 2.0% level.' The aims of this paper, therefore, are: (1) to evaluate China's