An assessment of anticipated future changes in water erosion dynamics under climate and land use change scenarios in South Asia

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Water erosion has emerged as a significant global environmental challenge, particularly in South Asia, recognized as one of the regions hardest to hit globally by climate change. This study aims to identify the potential erosion hotspots in South Asia and to assess areas under risk in the future due to climate and land use change scenarios. We utilized the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE), an empirical erosion model, to estimate erosion for both historical and future periods, considering two distinct Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSP126 and SSP585). The baseline model predicts a mean water erosion rate of 10.6 t. ha−1. year−1 in South Asia, with more than 30 t. ha−1. year−1 recorded for 6.3 % of the total land area. Notably, Bangladesh and Nepal exhibit significantly higher erosion rates than other South Asian countries. Further, our projection indicates an + 10 % increase in erosion rates during the near future (2021–2040) under SSP585 compared to the historical estimates. A substantial rise of approximately + 31 % and + 39 % in water erosion rates in South Asia is anticipated during the far future periods of 2061–2080 and 2081–2100 under SSP585. At the country level, Bangladesh (+42 %), Bhutan (+108 %), and Nepal (+70 %) are expected to experience substantial increases in erosion rates during the 2081–2100 period, with India projecting a + 38 % increase. Additionally, a significant + 35 % expansion in the spatial extent of high erosion areas (>30 t. ha−1. year−1) is foreseen in 2081–2100 under SSP585. Furthermore, under the low climate change scenario (SSP126), the impact on the erosion rates is minimal, while under SSP585, a substantial increase in erosion rates is anticipated. Regions such as Southern India, the arid and semi-arid areas near the India-Pakistan border, and the Himalayan foothills are identified as hotspots for significant changes in erosion rates. Acknowledging a certain level of uncertainty, our study provides valuable insights into erosion risk areas in South Asia and their plausible future impacts due to climate and land use changes. This information can assist policymakers in South Asian countries in developing national-level strategies for soil conservation and climate resilience.