An Assessment of Aggregate Focusing Events, Disaster Experience, and Policy Change

Abstract

To what extent is the rarity of a focusing event important opening the window for policy change? This paper contributes to the Multiple Streams Approach (MSA) by refining the concept of focusing event rarity as an important predictor of the opportunity for policy change. The central contention of this paper is that event rarity is less important than an aggregation of focusing events over time. The theoretical rationale is that aggregate focusing events serve to make the ambiguity of policy problems and solutions more easily manageable. Using data on flood mitigation policy in the United States, this paper examines the effect of aggregate focusing events on state adoption policies buy out flood‐prone land. It develops and tests indices of aggregate focusing events at for 10 years prior to state policy change. The findings support classic definition of focusing events as a trigger for potential policy chance. In addition, exploratory findings suggest that focusing events in the aggregate, of 3 years leading up to policy change are also important for triggering policy change.