An assessment of a very severe cyclonic storm in the Arabian sea using the COSMO model

Abstract

Accurate and reliable representation of convective processes is one of the major sources of uncertainty in numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, especially for those operating in the grey zone resolutions. The performance of NWP models become more sensitive to their grid resolutions, when they are used for simulation of severe weather events, such as a cyclonic storm. In this paper, we present a detailed assessment of an intense convective episode with heavy precipitation associated with the passage of a very severe cyclonic storm “OCKHI” using the Consortium for Small-scale Modelling (COSMO). A set of distinct numerical simulations are carried out using COSMO to address the impact of grid resolution and the treatment of explicit and implicit convection. Results obtained from the present investigation indicate that explicit treatment of convection in the COSMO model led to improved prediction of the cyclonic event in terms of sea level pressure, maximum sustained surface wind speeds and the accumulated rainfall, but reduction of the spatial grid resolution from 7 to 3 km did not show appreciable differences in the forecast fields. Conclusively, the current study recommends switching off the convection parameterization scheme at a grid resolution of 7 km for improved predictability of tropical cyclones.