An assessment of a nowcast/forecast system for the straits of Florida/Florida Current regime

Abstract

The Florida Current (FC) largely fills the Straits of Florida and is variable on a broad spectrum of time and space scales. Some portions of the variability are due to variable forcing by tides, winds, heating/cooling, and throughflow; other portions are due to intrinsic instabilities of the FC. To predict, as well as to better understand this complex regime, a now-cast/forecast system (East Florida Shelf Information System (EFSIS)) has been implemented and assessed (http://efsis. rsmas.miami.edu). EFSIS is based on an implementation of the Princeton Ocean Model (POM) with mesoscale — admitting resolution on a curvilinear grid. It is forced by a mesoscale numerical weather prediction system (called Eta) run operationally by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), eight tidal constituents from a global tidal model, and lateral boundary conditions from an operational global ocean prediction model, i.e., the Navy Coastal Ocean Model (NCOM). Real-time observations of coastal sea level, coastal sea surface temperature, coastal HF radar-derived surface current maps, and FC volume transport are used to verify and validate EFSIS. EFSIS is part of an evolving strategy for real-time predictive coastal ocean modeling methodology, and for fostering the understanding of the variability of the regime on several time and space scales. Here, some of the verification and validation results are provided, as well as diagnostic analyses of dynamical processes. The central point is that an example is provided of a ‘scientific revolution’ in progress that combines real-time observations and numerical circulation models to yield a credible sequence of synoptic views of coastal ocean circulation for the first time.