Abstract
To address comprehensive system innovations that may occur in a future transition, a suitable ex ante assessment method is required. The technological innovation system approach is useful for the retrospective study of the conditions for success or failure of innovation trajectories, and the multilevel framework helps to understand transition dynamics. Drawing on these concepts and on the hypercube of innovation, we suggest, as an ex ante approach, the assessment method for system innovation and transition (AMSIT). This method not only helps to anticipate the requirements for a system innovation and transition, but it also provides an indication if these requirements are being met. The method helps to assess innovation system initiatives that not only face technological challenges in the niche in which it operates, but also challenging factors related to the sociotechnical regime and the political and societal landscape in which the niche is located. This paper describes the construction of the anticipatory AMSIT and illustrates its application in a case linked to the Dutch railway network involving a transition to a system operating at an increased voltage.
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