Abstract
BackgroundOutbreaks of respiratory infectious diseases often occur in crowded places. To understand the pattern of spread of an outbreak of a respiratory infectious disease and provide a theoretical basis for targeted implementation of scientific prevention and control, we attempted to establish a stochastic model to simulate an outbreak of a respiratory infectious disease at a military camp. This model fits the general pattern of disease transmission and further enriches theories on the transmission dynamics of infectious diseases.MethodsWe established an enclosed system of 500 people exposed to adenovirus type 7 (ADV 7) in a military camp. During the infection period, the patients transmitted the virus randomly to susceptible people. The spread of the epidemic under militarized management mode was simulated using a computer model named “the random collision model”, and the effects of factors such as the basic reproductive number (R0), time of isolation of the patients (TOI), interval between onset and isolation (IOI), and immunization rates (IR) on the developmental trend of the epidemic were quantitatively analysed.ResultsOnce the R0 exceeded 1.5, the median attack rate increased sharply; when R0 = 3, with a delay in the TOI, the attack rate increased gradually and eventually remained stable. When the IOI exceeded 2.3 days, the median attack rate also increased dramatically. When the IR exceeded 0.5, the median attack rate approached zero. The median generation time was 8.26 days, (95% confidence interval [CI]: 7.84–8.69 days). The partial rank correlation coefficients between the attack rate of the epidemic and R0, TOI, IOI, and IR were 0.61, 0.17, 0.45, and − 0.27, respectively.ConclusionsThe random collision model not only simulates how an epidemic spreads with superior precision but also allows greater flexibility in setting the activities of the exposure population and different types of infectious diseases, which is conducive to furthering exploration of the epidemiological characteristics of epidemic outbreaks.
Highlights
Outbreaks of respiratory infectious diseases often occur in crowded places
Model establishment Second, we established the model according to the following disposal method of respiratory infectious disease outbreaks in Chinese military camps
When the Time of isolation of the patients (TOI) was on the 10th day, the probability of having more than 10 patients was only 0.2, indicating that the outbreak was well under control
Summary
Outbreaks of respiratory infectious diseases often occur in crowded places. To understand the pattern of spread of an outbreak of a respiratory infectious disease and provide a theoretical basis for targeted implementation of scientific prevention and control, we attempted to establish a stochastic model to simulate an outbreak of a respiratory infectious disease at a military camp. ADV 7 outbreaks are very common among military trainees in many countries [8,9,10,11,12,13], most likely due to the close living quarters of trainees, the persistence of adenoviruses in the environment when infectious agents from epidemic areas enter the camp, the susceptibility of the general population to some variants [14], and low vaccine coverage [15]. To achieve the objectives discussed above, theoretical research on the dynamics of epidemic transmission is needed, and the time of control and the impact of measures on the attack rate must be quantitatively analysed
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a call
