Abstract
This study presents an accident prediction model of Erzurum’s Highways in Turkey using artificial neural network (ANN) approaches. There are many ANN models for predicting the number of accidents on highways that were developed using 8 years with 7,780 complete accident reports of historical data (2005-2012). The best ANN model was chosen for this task and the model parameters included years, highway sections, section length (km), annual average daily traffic (AADT), the degree of horizontal curvature, the degree of vertical curvature, traffic accidents with heavy vehicles (percentage), and traffic accidents that occurred in summer (percentage). In the ANN model development, the sigmoid activation function was employed with Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm. The performance of the developed ANN model was evaluated by mean square error (MSE), the root mean square error (RMSE), and the coefficient of determination (R2). The model results indicate that the degree of vertical curvature is the most important parameter that affects the number of accidents on highways.
Highlights
Introduction1.3 million people die and 20-50 million are injured each year due to traffic accidents
Worldwide, 1.3 million people die and 20-50 million are injured each year due to traffic accidents
The best artificial neural network (ANN) model was chosen for this task and the model parameters included years, highway sections, section length, annual average daily traffic (AADT), the degree of horizontal curvature, the degree of vertical curvature, traffic accidents with heavy vehicles, and traffic accidents that occurred in summer
Summary
1.3 million people die and 20-50 million are injured each year due to traffic accidents. Due to the rapid development of economy and continuous improvement in Turkey, the number of vehicles, transportation demand, and traffic accidents have increased during the last decades. Injuries and deaths are the result of traffic accidents, and lead to the waste of social wealth. It is very important to reduce the highway traffic accidents in the developing countries like Turkey, and the traffic safety should be improved by the analysis of accident characteristics. Numerous empirical relationships between vehicle accidents and these explanatory variables have been established in several previous studies [2, 3, 4].The reliability and results of traffic accident prediction models have an important meaning for the improvement of traffic safety management
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