Abstract
Abstract This paper presents an approximate method to assess the fracture failure probability of a spherical tank. The method derives the general formulae to calculate the first four moments of the crack on the fatigue growth occasion by use of the power series of the crack. The paper then derives the first four moments of the crack tip opening displacement according to Japan WES2805 code and the probability distribution of the crack tip opening displacement is determined through the skewness-kurtosis curve. Lastly the fracture failure probability of a spherical tank is estimated on the interference theory and the presented method is compared with the Monte Carlo simulation technique.
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