Abstract
Abstract. The paper presents a method for a short-term tsunami forecast based on sea level data from remote sites. This method is based on Green's function for the wave equation possessing the fundamental property of symmetry. This property is well known in acoustics and seismology as the reciprocity principle. Some applications of this principle on tsunami research are considered in the current study. Simple relationships and estimated transfer functions enabled us to simulate tsunami waveforms for any selected oceanic point based only on the source location and sea level data from a remote reference site. The important advantage of this method is that it is irrespective of the actual source mechanism (seismic, submarine landslide or other phenomena). The method was successfully applied to hindcast several recent tsunamis observed in the Northwest Pacific. The locations of the earthquake epicenters and the tsunami records from one of the NOAA DART sites were used as inputs for the modelling, while tsunami observations at other DART sites were used to verify the model. Tsunami waveforms for the 2006, 2007 and 2009 earthquake events near Simushir Island were simulated and found to be in good agreement with the observations. The correlation coefficients between the predicted and observed tsunami waveforms were from 0.50 to 0.85. Thus, the proposed method can be effectively used to simulate tsunami waveforms for the entire ocean and also for both regional and local tsunami warning services, assuming that they have access to the real-time sea level data from DART stations.
Highlights
A short-term tsunami forecast and effective tsunami warning is a key problem of the tsunami service
In the present study we suggest a simple method for short-term tsunami forecasting that does not require precomputed tsunami waveforms
Tsunami forecasts give almost identical results based either on the data from reference DART stations located in the same direction as the target sites or from the stations located in other directions
Summary
A short-term tsunami forecast and effective tsunami warning is a key problem of the tsunami service. The maximum wave heights and other parameters of arriving tsunami for several US sites were predicted and were later found to be in good agreement with the actual in situ observed waves (Titov, 2009) It should be noted, that the PMEL technology is based on a pre-computed Propagation Database to compute a quick preliminary forecast of the ocean-wide propagation of the tsunami as a linear combination of unit sources selected to represent the initial earthquake parameters. The method is based on a reciprocity principle (cf Rayleigh, 1945; Loomis, 1979) and uses only the seismological information about co-ordinates of the earthquake epicenter and in situ tsunami data from one of the far-field open-ocean DART stations This method can work in a real-time mode and, be effectively used for local Tsunami Warning
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