An approach using Dempster–Shafer evidence theory to fuse multi-source observations for dam safety estimation

Abstract

Considering the limitations existing in the single-effect quantity analysis method of dam service behavior reasoning, the dam service behavior multi-effect quantities fusion reasoning model is built and implemented based on the study of improved methods about classic Dempster–Shafer (D–S) evidence fusion technologies. Focusing on the problems that classic D–S evidence fusion rules fail or the reasoning results are contrary to the intuition and convention due to the high-conflict evidences, the calculation methods of compatibility coefficient measurement matrices between any two basic probability assignment functions of evidences (E-BPAF) and between any two basic probability assignment functions of focal elements (FE-BPAF) are provided, respectively, based on the compatibility analysis of any two E-BPAFs and any two FE-BPAFs. The weight matrices about any two E-BPAFs and any two FE-BPAFs for initial BPAFs are defined, respectively, through compatibility coefficient matrices. Then, the comprehensive weight matrix for initial BPAFs is introduced to unify weight matrices. By analyzing and comparing some examples and existing study results, the performance test of the proposed method is conducted and the correctness and rationality are also verified. Finally, combining with an instance of a gravity arch dam project, the proposed method is utilized to fuse the multi-information from measuring points on the dam abutment, and the reasonable reasoning results are obtained about the dam service behavior.