Abstract
We introduce a model to support scenario analysis while managing costs of high-tech project. If the project results from joint efforts of firms with one per single stage the model suggests budget redistribution in case of funding shortage or exchange rate volatility. Given negative outer effects for the project the model requires the project to be completed and this constraint forces firms to diminish their profit or to make a loan if needed. The model proposed suggests human-machine (expert) interaction to build scenario for analysis but is simpler compared to method of successive concessions from computational point of view.
Highlights
Planning is a standard practice in high-tech projects development: circumstances arise along the time, and they require an appropriate reaction and control
Leaving the problems of coalitions formation outside the framework, as well as the solution of technical problems associated with the search for the technology layout, we describe a model for drawing up an optimal project budget structure
The model described processes a set of parameters and variables
Summary
Planning is a standard practice in high-tech projects development: circumstances arise along the time, and they require an appropriate reaction and control. A number of acting bodies, engineering difficulties and complexity of production technology require risk management techniques in the project implementation [1]. Probabilistic methods result in statistical distribution estimates of project costs and schedule given the random risks. Project schedule ensures the planned result and describes the base scenario subjected to risk The latter affect the cost of single stages both upward and downward. The decision-maker receives for analysis the probability distributions of the total project budget and costs of single stages. This information supports additional funding allocation between project stages and contractors.
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