Abstract
In recent years there has been a heightened interest in the management of local growth in general and in land use planning specifically. Regional economic theory suggests that local government has little control over the amount of growth that occurs. The model presented in this paper is a framework for (a) identifying the economic factors affecting the demand for urban land and (b) developing conditional forecasts of the demand for urban land.
Highlights
An Approach To Forecasting TheIn recent years there has been a heightened interest in the management of local growth in general and in land use planning
Regional economic theory suggests that local government has little con trol over the amount of growth that occurs
The data for the dependent variables was obtained by using city lot maps in conjunction with the city directory
Summary
In recent years there has been a heightened interest in the management of local growth in general and in land use planning . Local government decision makers would like to know what economic factors affect the local demand for land as well as what growth is likely to occur in the future. If local government decision makers have reliable growth forecasts, they can use what policy instruments they have to manage the growth that is expected to occur. Regional economic theory suggests that local government has little con trol over the amount of growth that occurs. This depends on the local and external demand for local production, which basically is in the hands of private decision makers. If local authorities have reliable forecasts of the demand for urban land they can formulate plans to effectively manage urban growth. The model presented in this paper is a framework for(a)identifying the economic factors affecting the demand for urban land and (b) developing conditional forecasts of the demand for urban land
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