An Approach to Evaluating the Societal Risks and Agricultural Impacts from a Proposed Plutonium Processing Facility

Abstract

The authors recently evaluated the potential societal risk from a proposed plutonium processing facility at the Pantex Plant near Amarillo, Texas. The societal risk from the proposed facility was compared to that of existing facilities and operations at the Pantex Plant. In addition, the research team investigated potential agricultural impacts by making use of source terms from postulated, bounding accidents identified in the societal risk assessment. The design of the proposed facility was not well defined due to the preliminary stage of the design process. Data from a wide variety of sources were used to infer radiological accident frequencies, source terms, and consequences. Data sources included environmental impact statements, safety analysis reports, Federal regulations and standards, international and U.S. advisory committee reports, and articles in professional publications. Safety documents for existing operations were reviewed, and a consistent analysis method applied to the postulated accidents for the proposed facility. The derived societal risk for the proposed facility could then be compared to that from existing operations and facilities. Areas of land contaminated to different levels by an accident were used as the measure of the agricultural consequence. Derived response levels (DRLs) were calculated that corresponded to protective action guides (PAGs) used in emergency situations. These values were used in conjunction with the HotSpot computer code (Homann 1994) to determine the areas of land where the deposition levels for the various accident scenarios exceeded the DRLs corresponding to particular PAGs.