Abstract

This is a preliminary application of McGhee and Stephanopoulos’s efficiency gap measure to the state of Oregon for elections from 2012-2016. This is one of the measures currently being considered by the U.S. Supreme Court in the Gill v. Whitford gerrymandering case. Our results suggest that the current configuration of U.S, House districts minimizes the impact of a sizeable statewide Republican vote (@41-42%) that results in only 20% of the seats being given to this party. This disparity is less apparent in state senate and house seats, although the Democratic Party was at a distinct disadvantage in 2016 state senate elections. We also note the growing number of uncontested elections since this redistricting plan was first adopted in 2012.

Highlights

  • The “First Monday in October” has come and gone, and the U.S Supreme Court has heard oral arguments in the case of Gill vs. Whitford, No 16-1161

  • The three-judge Federal District Court panel ruled earlier this year that the Republicans in Wisconsin had exceeded the boundaries of conventional partisan gerrymandering

  • Among the various standards being considered in this case is the “efficiency gap” - a measure developed by Eric

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Summary

Introduction

The “First Monday in October” has come and gone, and the U.S Supreme Court has heard oral arguments in the case of Gill vs. Whitford, No 16-1161. This decision is not likely to be handed down for several months. The three-judge Federal District Court panel ruled earlier this year that the Republicans in Wisconsin had exceeded the boundaries of conventional partisan gerrymandering. Ripple, writing for the majority, stated that the Wisconsin redistricting district plan “ ...was designed to make it more difficult for Democrats, compared to Republicans, to translate their votes into seats” This was the first federal court decision in over 30 years that rejected a redistricting plan as partisan gerrymandering (Liptak and Shear, 2017)

The “Efficiency Gap”
Empirical Analysis
Analysis of Oregon
Findings
Implications
Full Text
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