An application of Bayesian Belief Networks to assess management scenarios for aquaculture in a complex tropical lake system in Indonesia.

Ivana Yuniarti,Alistair Mcvittie,Klaus Glenk,Sulung Nomosatryo,Tri Suryono,Endra Triwisesa,Iwan Ridwansyah,Arianto Budi Santoso,Andreas C Bryhn

doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0250365

Abstract

A Bayesian Belief Network, validated using past observational data, is applied to conceptualize the ecological response of Lake Maninjau, a tropical lake ecosystem in Indonesia, to tilapia cage farms operating on the lake and to quantify its impacts to assist decision making. The model captures ecosystem services trade-offs between cage farming and native fish loss. It is used to appraise options for lake management related to the minimization of the impacts of the cage farms. The constructed model overcomes difficulties with limited data availability to illustrate the complex physical and biogeochemical interactions contributing to triggering mass fish kills due to upwelling and the loss in the production of native fish related to the operation of cage farming. The model highlights existing information gaps in the research related to the management of the farms in the study area, which is applicable to other tropical lakes in general. Model results suggest that internal phosphorous loading (IPL) should be recognized as one of the primary targets of the deep eutrophic tropical lake restoration efforts. Theoretical and practical contributions of the model and model expansions are discussed. Short- and longer-term actions to contribute to a more sustainable management are recommended and include epilimnion aeration and sediment capping.

Highlights

Inland water cage culture farms (IWCCF) operate at a range of spatial scales, from traditional households to corporate modern farms
The summary of the data presented in those figures is shown in Table 4, and the details can be seen in S4 Table in S1 File
The constructed Bayesian Belief Networks (BBN) model can be used to capture the complexity of the ecological system in a deep tropical lake

Summary

Introduction

Inland water cage culture farms (IWCCF) operate at a range of spatial scales, from traditional households to corporate modern farms. IWCCF is rapidly growing around the globe as an answer to the increasing demand for aquatic products [1]. In Asia, cage culture is one of the most widely practised aquaculture systems in terms of both production and value [2, 3]. The rapid development of cage culture in the region is often attributed to the necessity to provide.

Methods

Results

Discussion

Conclusion