An application of ARIMA model for predicting total health expenditure in China from 1978-2022.

Abstract

BackgroundChina's health financing system has changed from the government-led mode under the planned economy to the diversified mode under the market economy. Equity in health financing has been a national health priority. This study aimed to predict changes in total health expenditure (THE), government health expenditure (GHE), social health expenditure (SHE) and out-of-pocket health expenditure (OOP) in China from 2018 to 2022, and to provide a theoretical basis for health policy adjustment.MethodsBased on health expenditure date of time series from 1978-2017, R3.5.1 software was used to construct the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model.ResultsThe model of THE, GHE, SHE and OOP are ARIMA (3.3.0), ARIMA (1.3.1), ARIMA (2.4.0), ARIMA (2.2.2). According to the simulation results, in 2022, China's THE is expected to reach 8473.00 billion Yuan, and the constituent ratios in GHE, SHE and OOP will be 25.49%, 51.25% and 23.26%, respectively. The proportion of THE to GDP will continuously increase from 2018-2022 at a reasonable pace, while THE itself will increase rapidly.ConclusionsChina should take effective measures to control the excessive growth of THE, keep decreasing the OOP percentage, and improve the efficiency and fairness of the use of health funds.