An ANP Model for Risk Assessment in Large-Scale Transport Infrastructure Projects

Abstract

Large-scale transport infrastructure projects (LSTIPs) are developed structures that emerged from the essential necessity of fast-paced and convenient transportation in gradually growing populations. Multiple risks, such as technical, financial, economic, political, construction, managerial, natural and environmental and legal risks, may be encountered in LSTIPs. This study aims to list these possible risks in order of priority for European and Middle Eastern LSTIPs by means of an analytical network process method. The priority orders were obtained separately for Europe and the Middle East, and comparisons were made between these regions. The results highlight that Europe and the Middle East share both common and distinctive risk factors in the orders of priority. “The financial strength of the client” ranked as the foremost common risk factor for Europe and the Middle East received a priority value of 13.37 and 11.54%, respectively. However, salient differences in the findings revealed that “change in scope of work” and “water pollution” ranked as the second leading risk factors have priority values of 5.48% for Europe and 4.55% for the Middle East, respectively. To further support the priority orders achieved in this study, two different case studies were conducted. The priority orders achieved in this study could be used as a guideline for identifying and sequencing the risks in planning stages of similar projects conducted in various countries. Future related studies could be juxtaposed with the results of this study to analyse the alterations of priority orders that will have occurred in the course of time.