An Anomaly-Based Method for Identifying Signals of Spring and Autumn Low-Temperature Events in the Yangtze River Valley, China

Abstract

AbstractAbnormally low temperature (LT) events in spring and autumn can cause severe damage to spring and autumn rice production in the mid- to lower Yangtze River valley in China. Advanced predictions of such events can help mitigate their damage. However, the current methods have limited success in describing and predicting those weather events. In this study, a new method is proposed to decompose any one of the meteorological variables into its climatic component and an anomaly, and the anomaly is used in identifying signals of the LT events. The method is used in 20 strong spring LT events and 44 autumn events during 1960–2008. The results show the advanced ability of this method to clearly describe the LT events as compared with the vague indications of such events that are produced by conventional methods currently in practice in China. In addition, the composite profile of vertical anomalies shows that a negative center of geopotential height anomalies at around 300 hPa, coexisting with a strong cold center of temperature anomalies at 850 hPa, is a signature for LT events. For the 44 autumn LT events and 20 spring LT events during 1960–2008, their early disturbances were identified up to 10.2 days and 6.9 days, respectively, before the occurrence of the LT events in the valley. This result suggests that identifying the early disturbances and extracting anomalous signals from the products of current medium-range weather forecast models may be a potential way to improve the prediction skill for LT events in the valley.