An Announced Extinction: The Impacts of Mining on the Persistence of Arthrocereus glaziovii, a Microendemic Species of Campos Rupestres

Abstract

The mountaintops of eastern Brazil harbor the highest rates of plant endemism in South America. However, local biodiversity faces constant threats due to habitat loss and mining activities. About 89 rare and endangered species are exclusive to this region, including the threatened species Arthrocereus glaziovii. This study aims to evaluate the potential distribution of A. glaziovii based on abiotic variables and soil elements and to characterize the distribution of mineral titles that may restrict the species’ occurrence areas. We used the Bioclim, Domain, MaxEnt, GLM, and Random Forest algorithms to model this ecological niche under future climatic scenarios, in addition to modeling the layers of mineral titles corresponding to areas already mined and those slated for future mining projects. Our predictions indicate an expansion in the future distribution of A. glaziovii. Nevertheless, the future predicted occurrence areas of the species are already compromised due to mining. According to our findings, we emphasize the looming threat of the predicted extinction of this species. Therefore, implementing conservation strategies to ensure the survival of A. glaziovii is imperative.