Abstract
BackgroundThe surge in the COVID-19 related hospitalization has been straining the US health system. COVID-19 patients with underlying chronic conditions have a disproportionately higher risk of hospitalization and intensive care unit (ICU) admission. We developed a retrospective analytical model of COVID-19 related hospitalizations and ICU admissions linked to each of the three major chronic conditions – hypertension, diabetes, and cardiovascular diseases (CVD).MethodsBased on the differential probability of hospitalization of the COVID-19 patients with and without a chronic condition, we estimate a baseline cumulative hospitalization rate and ICU admission rate using the population level chronic condition prevalence from the 2019 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System survey. Next, we estimate the hospitalization and ICU admission rates under an alternative scenario of a lower prevalence of the same chronic condition, aligned with the World Health Organization target of 25% relative reduction of prevalence by 2025. We then compare the outcomes of the baseline and the alternative scenarios.ResultsWe estimate that the lower prevalence of hypertension would have lowered the cumulative hospitalization and ICU admission rates by more than 2.5%. The lower prevalence of diabetes and CVD would lower the cumulative hospitalization rate by 0.6% and 1.4% respectively. The decrease in the rates would have been relatively higher among Black and elderly (age 55+).ConclusionsOur model, thus, provides evidence on the importance of prevention, control, and management of chronic conditions to lessen the overwhelming financial and public health burden on the health system during a pandemic like the COVID-19.
Highlights
The surge in the COVID-19 related hospitalization has been straining the United States (US) health system
The risk of COVID-19 mortality is significantly greater among those with cardiovascular diseases (CVD), hypertension, and diabetes [4] and the population level prevalence rates of these chronic conditions are linked to COVID-19 related hospitalization, which is higher among patients with these underlying conditions [5]
The counterfactual scenarios are estimated for a lower level of prevalence and compared with the baseline to illustrate what could have been the cumulative hospitalization rate had there been a lower prevalence of the chronic condition
Summary
The surge in the COVID-19 related hospitalization has been straining the US health system. The risk of COVID-19 mortality is significantly greater among those with CVD, hypertension, and diabetes [4] and the population level prevalence rates of these chronic conditions are linked to COVID-19 related hospitalization, which is higher among patients with these underlying conditions [5]. Datta et al BMC Public Health (2022) 22:208 tics such as age, sex, race, ethnicity, etc., and underlying health conditions [6,7,8,9,10,11] While these studies provide important insights on the association between COVID-19 related hospitalization and health conditions by assessing the demographic, social and health determinants of hospitalization, there is a dearth of analysis on how progress in the population level management of chronic diseases would have lessened the burden of COVID-19 related hospitalization
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