Abstract
Open-die forging is a manufacturing process commonly used for realising simple shaped components with high mechanical performances and limited capability in terms of production volume. To date, an analytical model for estimating the costs of components manufactured with this technology is still an open issue. The paper aims to define an analytical model for cost estimation of axisymmetric components manufactured by open-die forging technology. The model is grounded on the analysis of geometrical features available at the design stage providing a detailed cost breakdown in relation to all the process phases and the raw material. The model allows predicting product cost, linking geometrical features and cost items, to carry out design-to-cost actions oriented to the reduction of manufacturing cost. The model is mainly conceived for design engineers, cost engineers and buyers, respectively, for improving the product design, the manufacturing process and the supply chain. Cost model and related schemas for collecting equations and data are presented, including the approach for sizing the raw material and a set of rules for modelling the related cost. Finally, analytic equations for modelling the cost of the whole forging process (i.e. billet cutting, heating, pre-smoothing, smoothing, upsetting, max-shoulder cogging, necking and shoulders cogging) are reported. The cost model has been tested on eight cylindrical parts such as discs and shafts with different shapes, dimensions and materials. Two forge masters have been involved in the testing phase. The absolute average deviation between the actual and estimated costs is approximately 4% for raw material and 21% for the process. The absolute average deviation on the total cost (raw material and manufacturing process) is approximately 5%.
Highlights
Open-die forging is a manufacturing process commonly used for realising simple shaped components with high mechanical performances and limited capability in terms of production volume
The methods developed for cost estimation can be grouped in two main families: (i) qualitative methods, which are based on a comparative analysis of a new product and an existing one and (ii) quantitative methods, which are based on a detailed analysis of the product design, including its features and corresponding manufacturing processes [37]
It contains the meaningful information required for evaluating the analytical model for the cost estimation of axisymmetric components realised with open die-forging processes
Summary
Open-die forging is a manufacturing process commonly used for realising simple shaped components with high mechanical performances and limited capability in terms of production volume. An analytical model for estimating the costs of components manufactured with this technology is still an open issue. The paper aims to define an analytical model for cost estimation of axisymmetric components manufactured by open-die forging technology. This process does not require complex shaped dies as for closed die forging, while simple tools, such as flat or round dies and blades, are generally used. The economic value of such components is generally high since the high raw material rate and energy consumption For these reasons, it is crucial to estimate the production cost in the early phases of the engineering design process. Quantitative cost estimation approaches include analytical methods, which use geometric features as the basis for cost estimation, and parametric methods founded on the relations between product characteristics and their cost [10]
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